GLOBAL- FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2023 is raised by 3.8 million tonnes from the previous forecast and now stands at 2 819 million tonnes, 0.9 percent (26.5 million tonnes) higher year on year.
FAO attributes the improved outlook reflecting better wheat production prospects, with the forecast for the world outturn revised upward by 3.7 million tonnes in September to 785 million tonnes.
According to FAO, these upward revisions offset a steep cut to the forecast for Canada’s wheat output due to extensive and persisting dry weather in the key producing states.
Similarly, wheat production forecasts for Argentina and Kazakhstan also were scaled back as prolonged dry and hot weather has degraded crop conditions.
FAO’s latest forecast for global coarse grains production for 2023 has remained virtually unchanged at 1 511 million tonnes; however, it represents a 2.7 percent (39.2 million tonnes) increase from the previous year.
The forecast for global maize production was raised slightly this month, driven almost entirely by improved prospects in Brazil, reflecting the latest area and yield estimates from the ongoing main crop (safrinha) harvest.
Brazil is experiencing conducive overall weather conditions this year, underpinning the excellent prospects, with production seen reaching a record high in 2023.
As for rice, production is estimated at 523.1 million tonnes (milled basis), essentially unchanged from the September forecast and implying a 1% annual increase.
FAO stated that somewhat lower than previously anticipated plantings have trimmed production prospects for Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the Philippines since September.
However, these revisions were largely offset by upgrades for the United States of America and for Cote d’Ivoire, where planting expansions coupled with generally conducive growing conditions look set to translate into a record harvest.
Overall, cereal utilization is forecast at 2.804 billion tonnes, still 0.8% (21.8 million tonnes) higher than in 2022-23 despite a 3.1-million-tonne downward revision this month.
World cereal stocks are expected to reach a record high of 884 million tonnes at the close of the 2024 season, with a stocks-to-use ratio for total cereals projected at 30.8%.
FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2023/24 remains at around 466 million tonnes, unchanged from last month and pointing to a contraction of 1.7 percent (8.0 million tonnes) from the 2022/23 level.
World wheat exports are expected to decrease by 3.5% with a forecast of 193 million tonnes. Higher exports from Russia will offset downward revisions to exports from Australia and Canada.
Trade in coarse grains also is unchanged from last month at 220 million tonnes, an annual decline of 0.7%.
