GLOBAL- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has released its latest Food Price Index report, revealing a continued downward trend in global food commodity prices for the seventh consecutive month.
Despite this decline, concerns persist regarding wheat output forecasts and worsening food insecurity exacerbated by conflicts and adverse weather conditions.
The FAO Food Price Index, a benchmark for world food commodity prices, averaged 117.3 points in February, marking a 0.7 percent decrease from January and a notable 10.5 percent decline from the same period last year. Lower international quotations for major cereals largely drove this decline, offsetting modest increases in sugar and meat prices.
The FAO Cereal Price Index fell by 5.0 percent in February, with maize export prices experiencing significant drops amid expectations of abundant harvests in South America and competitive pricing from Ukraine.
International wheat prices also declined, primarily due to robust export activity from the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, international rice prices saw a marginal decrease of 1.6 percent.
The FAO has slightly increased its forecast for global total cereal production in 2023 to 2,840 million tonnes in its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. Higher maize and wheat usage for livestock feed is expected to drive an increase in cereal utilization for the 2023/24 period.
Global cereal stocks are predicted to rise, with stronger demand from China and maize exports from Ukraine supporting a 1.3 percent increase in world cereal trade.
Looking ahead to 2024, the FAO forecasts global wheat production to reach 797 million tonnes, a 1.0 percent increase from 2023 levels. Despite concerns over wheat planting cutbacks in North America, favorable weather conditions in key producing regions such as the Russian Federation, China, and India are expected to support increased production.
However, the FAO’s report also highlights ongoing challenges, including conflicts and adverse weather, exacerbating food insecurity in various regions. Particularly acute situations are noted in Near East Asia and West and East Africa, with concerns raised for the entire population of the Gaza Strip in Palestine.
Additionally, Southern Africa faces heightened food insecurity due to prolonged rainfall deficits associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon, necessitating increased cereal imports by affected countries in the forthcoming marketing year.
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