GLOBAL- The global wheat production for 2023/24 will decline by 4.3 million tons to 1,061.7 million as production reduces in the EU, China, and Canada, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
This projection is informed by an expected reduction in production, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks globally.
Similarly, China’s forecast is reduced by 3.0 million tons to 137.0 million, based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ summer grain production forecast.
Canada is also decreased 2.0 million tons to 33.0 million on worsening drought conditions in the Prairie Provinces.
Ukraine’s outlook is increased by 3.5 million tons to 21.0 million on higher area harvested and yields with the forecast yield the second highest on record.
In addition, Kazakhstan is raised 1.0 million tons to 15.0 million as more acreage goes to wheat according to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics.
Meanwhile, global consumption is reduced by 3.4 million tons to 796.1 million, mainly on lower feed and residual use for the EU and reduced food, seed, and industrial use by China.
The world trade for the commodity is expected to reduce by 2.2 million tons to 209.4 million on reduced exports by Canada and the United States.
Despite higher production, Ukraine’s exports are unchanged at 10.5 million tons with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
In addition, the projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are lowered by 0.9 million tons to 265.6 million, the lowest since 2015/16.
US outlook follows trend
In the USA, the wheat outlook for 2023/24 for August is for decreased supplies, slightly lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks.
These supplies are reduced as wheat production is forecast at 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum.
The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from last month.
Additionally, domestic use is lowered by 3 million bushels, all on food use, based on the NASS Flour Millings Products report, issued August 1.