GLOBAL- The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that total grain production will fall by 43 million tonnes this year.

In their report, issued on 16th February 2023, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its forecast of global total grains production for 2022-23 by 8 million tonnes from their initial projection in January.

The new report forecasts the total grain production at 2.248 billion tonnes for the year.

The year 2022 saw a reduction in the production of corn in the USA, which, being the largest producer of corn in the world, significantly affected the world grain production totals.

In Argentina, the fourth largest producer of corn, drought negatively impacted corn production, lowering the world totals for grain production.

Similarly, this drought affected Argentina’s soybean output, according to the IGC report. The IGC report now forecasts the 2022-23 production at 378 million tonnes, which is 7 million lower than the previous estimate.

For this crop, global production is likely to go up in 2022-23 by 6% y/y. Increased production in Brazil informed this forecast, as well as other smaller soybean producers.

The utilization of soybean globally has been increasing, which explains the expanded uptake of soybean. The IGC forecasts that trade for soybean will expand by 7% y/y.

Other grains whose global output is likely to fall include rice and broad beans, falling by 2% y/y and 4% y/y, respectively, in 2022/23.

Ukraine war also affects grain production
Another reason for the low global production of grains in 2022 is the Ukraine war which is affecting Ukraine’s agricultural potential.

In Ukraine the invasion occupied most of the 6 million hectares where wheat was planted, reducing the harvest to 4.9 million hectares in the country.

IGC, however, increased the forecast for the carryover total by 2 million tonnes to 579 million. This figure is, nevertheless, the lowest level in eight years.

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