UK – The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its monthly projection for total grains output lower by 10 million tonnes for the 2024-25 marketing year, with anticipated reductions in corn production in Argentina and sub-Saharan Africa, and smaller wheat crops in Russia, Ukraine, and the United States.

In its latest Grain Market Report, released on May 23, the IGC forecasted total grains production at 2.312 billion tonnes, which is still 1% higher than this year’s projected total. 

The report highlights a decrease in corn output, expected to fall slightly to 1.22 billion tonnes, while other commodities are anticipated to see year-on-year gains.

The IGC noted that consumption growth “is expected to be fairly tepid,” rising by 9 million tonnes year-on-year to 2.32 billion tonnes. This includes new peaks in the food, feed, and industrial use of grains. 

However, closing stocks are expected to continue to slide, reaching a 10-year low of 580 million tonnes, driven by declines in wheat and corn. Exporter inventories are forecasted to drop by 3% year-on-year to 142 million tonnes.

Despite the overall reduction in grains production, the IGC report predicts a robust increase in global soybean production, expected to rise by 6% to a record 414 million tonnes in 2024-25, bolstered by large outturns in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. 

Soybean consumption is also forecast to increase by 6% to a record 404 million tonnes, driven by a surge in demand for soya products, which is set to underpin record processing and total use.

Additionally, record rice production is projected for the coming marketing year, with an expected global output of 523 million tonnes. 

However, wheat consumption is anticipated to outpace production for the second consecutive year, estimated at 801 million tonnes compared to 795 million tonnes. 

Consequently, carryover stocks are predicted to fall to 260 million tonnes, the lowest level since the 2018-19 marketing year.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index showed a significant increase of 9% month-on-month, primarily driven by soaring prices of wheat, soybeans, and barley. 

Despite this rise, the May price index of 245 remains 5% lower than in 2023.

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