GLOBAL- At its 59th council session held in New Orleans on Jan. 24, the International Grains Council (IGC) announced that global grain production is set to achieve a record high of 2.307 billion tonnes in the 2023-24 season, largely attributed to a robust recovery in corn output.
Chaired by Anita Katial, the USDA’s Agricultural Counselor for the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, the meeting highlighted a projected 2% year-over-year increase in both grain production and consumption, reaching 2.307 billion tonnes and 2.314 billion tonnes, respectively.
Global inventories are expected to contract by 1%, reaching 590 million tonnes, marking the seventh consecutive drawdown. Meanwhile, world trade is anticipated to decrease by 3%, totaling 415 million tonnes, with reduced shipments of wheat, corn, and barley.
The IGC noted a potential 1% decline in global wheat harvested area for 2024-25 due to lower prices and suboptimal sowing weather in certain regions. While rapeseed/canola plantings may contract, they are projected to remain above average.
Soybean production is forecasted to reach a record 392 million tonnes, marking a 6% year-over-year gain, mainly tied to expectations of a rebound in Argentina. Consumption is predicted to peak, and aggregate inventories are set to climb for the second consecutive year, including accumulation in key exporting countries.
In contrast to the prior year’s expansion, world trade is expected to retreat by 2% year-over-year to 168 million tonnes, with China, Argentina, and Brazil anticipated to purchase less.
Global rice output is projected to decline by 1% year-over-year to 511 million tonnes due to reduced yield potential in Asia. Demand is expected to soften, and stocks are set to tighten, particularly in key exporting countries. Trade is forecasted to contract by 2% in 2024, mainly due to weaker buying interest from Asian importers.
The IGC Grains Forum 2024, held before the council session, focused on the biofuels market outlook and grains market development. The IGC secretariat delivered insights into the world ethanol and biodiesel sectors, highlighting scenarios for production and trade, along with implications for grains, oilseeds, and key raw materials markets.
Members were also informed about the IGC’s efforts to expand coverage and monitor real-time shipping data for wheat, corn, barley, soybeans, and rice. This additional layer of information aims to provide specialized data for assessing logistics and infrastructure challenges.
During the session, the IGC agreed to consider Senegal’s application to join the Grains Trade Convention. Additionally, members were briefed on the latest partnership agreement with the Korea Rural Economic Institute to exchange information on rice market developments.
Delegates, organized by the North American Export Grains Association, visited the Port of New Orleans on Jan. 23, emphasizing the critical role of these facilities in transporting agricultural commodities to global markets.
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