GLOBAL- In its latest Grain Market Report, the International Grains Council (IGC) has revealed a substantial year-on-year increase in world soybean output, driven primarily by larger crops in South America.
The report, released on November 16, 2023, indicates a robust performance for soybeans in the marketing year 2023-24, with production reaching a record 395 million tonnes.
The surge in soybean production is a significant development, with the IGC citing substantial contributions from South American crops as the driving force behind the 7% increase compared to the previous year.
The IGC’s optimistic outlook positions global soybean consumption to rise by 8% year on year, reaching an all-time high of 386 million tonnes.
Despite the impressive production figures, carryover stocks are anticipated to remain unchanged from the 2022-23 marketing year, holding steady at 171 million tonnes.
The IGC’s forecast for total grains, encompassing coarse grains and wheat, in the 2023-24 marketing year has been revised slightly higher to 2.295 billion tonnes. This marks the second-largest crop on record, following the exceptional 2021-22 season.
However, the report highlights a potential challenge as total grain demand is projected to surpass supply, reaching a record 2.308 billion tonnes. The Council anticipates a continued decline in carryover stocks, dropping to 585 million tonnes, the lowest level in nine years.
A key contributor to this forecast is the bumper world corn crop, which the IGC estimates will reach 1.223 billion tonnes, up from 1.161 billion the previous year.
The Council attributes this upward revision to better-than-expected yields in the United States, coupled with increased wheat figures from Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey.
While global wheat production was revised slightly higher than the previous month’s estimate, it still stands at 2% below last year’s total output of 804 million tonnes. Record-high wheat demand is expected to drive carryover stocks to their lowest level since 2016-17, with an estimated 264 million tonnes, according to the IGC.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index experienced a slight increase over the last months, reaching 262. This uptick can be attributed to gains in soybean and rice prices, compensating for weaknesses in other grain markets.
Nevertheless, the current price index remains nearly 17% lower than the same period last year, reflecting the dynamic nature of global grain markets.
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