UK – The International Grains Council (IGC) has adjusted its 2024-25 global corn production forecast downward by 7 million tonnes, citing mounting concerns over disease outbreaks and drought stress in the Southern Hemisphere. 

Despite this revision, the projected corn output of 1.226 billion tonnes would still set a record, surpassing last year’s all-time high by 2%, as stated in the IGC’s April 18 Grain Market Report.

The revised outlook for total grain production, including wheat and coarse grains, has also been trimmed by 10 million tonnes from the previous month to 2.322 billion tonnes. Nevertheless, this forecast would still mark a record high.

Attributing the decrease in total grain production to factors such as “a smaller carry-in” and “a smaller US (corn) figure,” the IGC underscores the complex challenges facing global grain production.

Global wheat output for the 2024-25 period remains steady at 798 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from the previous month but 9 million tonnes higher than the previous year. If realized, this would represent the second-largest wheat crop on record, trailing only behind the 2022-23 harvest.

Despite a reduction of 9 million tonnes in the projection for total grains carryover stocks from the previous month, totaling 592 million, the figure still exceeds the 2023-24 total, halting an eight-year downward trend.

The IGC anticipates a 2% decline in world trade within the total grains category, primarily due to reduced wheat and corn flows.

In contrast, soybean production is forecasted to exceed last year’s record output by 3.3%, reaching 403 million tonnes. The IGC also predicts record consumption, trade, and carryover stocks for soybeans in the 2024-25 period.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index experienced a slight decrease from the March projection, driven by net declines in soybeans, rice, and wheat. With an April price index of 224, the figure stands 21% lower than the same period last year, reflecting ongoing market dynamics and adjustments.

The IGC’s revised forecasts underscore the challenges posed by climatic factors and disease outbreaks on global grain production, highlighting the importance of adaptive strategies and international cooperation to mitigate risks and ensure food security in an ever-changing agricultural landscape.

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