JORDAN – The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture has estimated Wheat imports for Jordan to reach 1.2 million tonnes in 2024-25 as the government begins filling its strategic grain reserves to mitigate inflationary shocks caused by geopolitical crises.

If realized, wheat imports would remain at the same level as 2023-24, but up from 1 million tonnes in 2022-23, according to the USDA report.

Jordan is one of the world’s most arid nations and depends on global trade for its food security. Over the past two decades, Jordan’s population has more than doubled to 11 million taxing its natural resource base.

Additionally, Jordan is a major bread wheat importer, primarily supplied by Black Sea origins including Romania, Ukraine, and Russia.

FAS Amman forecasts marketing year (MY) 2024/25 wheat production to remain constant and unchanged from MY2023/24 estimates of 30,000 tons due to negligible changes to area and yield.

In MY2024/25, beneficial rains in February and March 2024 supplemented soil moisture to normal levels. In some years, hot winds in late April and May while wheat is still immature, reduce yields dramatically.

Jordan’s annual wheat production only covers roughly one week of national wheat consumption. Wheat consumption will remain unchanged from 2023-24 at 975,000 tonnes as slow economic growth offsets population growth, the FAS noted.

As a result, FAS estimates wheat exports in MY2024/25 to reach 50,000 metric tons, down 50,000 tons from MY2023/24 estimates due to an export ban initiated in December 2023 as well as fewer in-kind aid shipments.

The FAS projects that Jordan’s barley consumption in 2024-25 will reach 1.1 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes year-on-year due to higher feed use. Imports also will rise to 1.2 million tonnes in 2024-25, an increase from 1 million tonnes in 2023-24.

Barley production is projected at 25,000 tonnes for 2024-25, unchanged from the previous marketing year. Barley is part of a rotational crop to complement subsistence agriculture, to ensure soil conservation, integrated pest management regimes, and soil health.

Jordan’s corn consumption for 2023-24 and 2024-25 will reach 740,000 tonnes, the FAS forecasts, up significantly from an estimated 460,000 tonnes in 2022-23 on higher use for poultry feed.

With little corn production, 730,000 tonnes will be imported in 2024-25 to meet demand from expanded corn processing capacity.

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