KENYA- Kenya is grappling with a significant grain shortage, compelling the nation to seek imports from neighboring countries and international markets.
The Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC) reports that Kenya, alongside South Sudan, Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi, will struggle to meet its maize and wheat needs, forcing reliance on external supplies to bridge the deficit.
This situation arises from a combination of climate change impacts and high local demand for maize, a staple food in the region.
Experts estimate that nearly 70% of Eastern and Southern African countries will continue to import food to address their deficits. In particular, albeit at reduced levels, Kenya is expected to import maize from Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia.
Gerald Masila, executive director of the EAGC, highlighted that competition for tradable surpluses within the region will likely steer more grain flows to Kenya and the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where purchasing power is higher.
Despite a slight decrease in inflation rates in Kenya, which fell to 4.3% in July from 4.6% in June, the cost of living remains a pressing concern.
The country’s average per capita maize consumption is notably high, at 98-103 kilograms, compared to 73, 52, and 31 kilograms in Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Uganda, respectively. This high demand underscores the urgency for Kenya to secure sufficient grain supplies.
In a recent public-private policy dialogue and grain trade forum held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, it was revealed that over 60% of countries in the region are experiencing low maize production levels due to climate-related disruptions.
Despite these challenges, regional governments are committed to facilitating trade. Contracts worth US$409 million for grain trade were signed at the forum, signaling a collaborative effort to address food security.
Masila emphasized the potential for seamless trade across surplus and deficit regions, stating, “This demonstrates the enormous potential and demand for staple foods.”
Traders have begun executing these new trade agreements, with EAGC connecting them to regional commercial banks for financing.
Kenya has historically relied on imports to meet its grain needs, particularly from countries like Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine for wheat.
However, recent policy changes, including a ban on wheat and maize imports announced by President William Ruto, aim to protect local farmers from price fluctuations and bolster domestic production.
Ruto stated, “No permits will be issued to millers to import wheat or maize into the country,” reinforcing the government’s commitment to stabilizing local agriculture.
The EAGC forecasts that during the 2024-25 production year, approximately 438,770 metric tonnes of maize, valued at US$153.5 million, will be traded within the region.
While maize prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, they are generally anticipated to remain lower than last year due to increased domestic supply, except in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia, where localized production issues persist.
Nega Wubeneh, head of markets and trade at the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), warned that the African continent is currently facing a staggering US$41 billion food import bill, projected to exceed US$100 billion by 2025.
This grim outlook is exacerbated by the devastating effects of climate change, which have severely impacted crop production across Southern Africa.
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