NORTH AFRICA – North African countries are urgently seeking alternative sources of wheat after France, one of their primary suppliers, announced a “catastrophic” wheat harvest for 2024.
This shortfall is particularly concerning for North African nations, which have traditionally relied on French wheat to help meet their annual requirement of 32 million tonnes.
Heavy rainfall throughout the year has severely reduced French wheat production, prompting concerns in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia about securing adequate grain supplies to meet their growing demands.
The French wheat harvest, at its lowest level since 1983, is expected to yield only 25.17 million tonnes, a sharp decline from 35 million tonnes in 2023.
This drop has significantly reduced export capacity, with only 4.1 million tonnes available for non-European markets this year; less than half the 10.2 million tonnes exported outside the EU in the previous season.
Growing Demand and Shrinking Supplies in North Africa
North Africa’s reliance on wheat imports has grown alongside its population, which has surged from 69 million in 2000 to 97 million today.
The reduced availability of French wheat coincides with other regional supply challenges. Morocco, North Africa’s largest wheat producer, is entering its third consecutive year of drought, which is expected to lower the combined wheat production of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia to 5.7 million tonnes in 2024, down from 7.3 million tonnes in 2023.
This means that the region will need to import more than 19.5 million tonnes of wheat this year, up from 17.1 million tonnes in the previous year.
Concerns over supply scarcity are also being felt further south on the African continent. In Cameroon, industry professionals are already speculating about the types of wheat they will be able to source this season, given the tightened supply from France and potential challenges from other exporters.
Russia, other Suppliers step in
With French wheat supplies shrinking, Russia is poised to become the primary alternative supplier for North African markets.
Russian wheat production is strong this year, with 82.5 million tonnes produced and 14.9 million tonnes stored. Competitive pricing, currently around US$220 per tonne, makes Russian wheat an attractive option for North African importers seeking to fill the gap left by France.
Other countries, such as Pakistan, which is experiencing a record harvest, and Bangladesh, which also has ample supplies, are emerging as potential suppliers.
However, some exporters have imposed restrictions; for example, Turkey has placed a temporary ban on wheat imports until mid-October to prioritize domestic producers.
Meanwhile, China and India, both significant buyers of Russian wheat, have remained inactive in the global market for several months, potentially easing competition for North African buyers.
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