PHILIPPINES – The Philippines is set to retain its position as the world’s largest rice importer this year and next, driven by a combination of climate challenges and crop damage caused by recent typhoons.

As per the latest Grain: World Markets and Trade report from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service, the Philippines is projected to import 4.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice this year, a slight increase from previous estimates due to the country’s reliance on rice from Vietnam.

The USDA’s revised estimate, which marks a 2.2% increase from an earlier forecast of 4.6 million MT, attributes this to “strong buying of Vietnam rice.”

The country’s rice imports are expected to rise further in 2025, reaching 4.9 million MT as local production struggles with the ongoing effects of El Niño, La Niña, and successive typhoons.

The USDA’s projection comes against a backdrop of dwindling local rice production. The report notes that Philippine rice output is expected to fall to 12.3 million MT in 2025, down from an anticipated 12.7 million MT in 2024.

The decline is largely due to crop damage and a shrinking harvest area, as land conversion continues to reduce agricultural acreage.

In particular, typhoons, which struck the Philippines throughout the past year, have left substantial damage to rice paddies, while changing weather patterns, driven by both El Niño and La Niña, have affected planting schedules and yields.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the country produced 8.53 million MT of palay (unhusked rice) in the first half of 2024, a 5.5% decrease from the same period in 2023.

The Department of Agriculture expects domestic palay output to remain stagnant next year due to the ongoing climatic disruptions.

Increasing dependence on imports

With domestic production under pressure, the Philippines is increasingly turning to rice imports to meet demand.

Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry reveals that the country had imported 3.29 million MT of rice as of October 3, 2024.

Vietnam remains the top supplier, accounting for 2.61 million MT of rice imports, followed by Thailand (416,185 MT) and Pakistan (157,564 MT). India, which recently lifted a 14-month export ban on non-basmati white rice, shipped 76,971 MT during the same period.

The Philippines’ reliance on imported rice has surged since 2019, peaking in 2022 before slightly declining in 2023.

However, the latest figures show that import volumes in 2024 have already reached 91.3% of the country’s total purchases last year.

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