RUSSIA – As the world’s leading wheat exporter and third-largest producer, Russia’s 2024/2025 wheat campaign outlook appears grim compared to the previous year’s robust performance. 

According to a report from agricultural consulting firm SovEcon, Russian wheat exports are projected to decline to 46.1 million tons for the 2024/2025 season, down from an estimated 52.2 million tons in the 2023/2024 campaign. 

This anticipated reduction is primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting the harvest. Severe frosts in May declared a state of emergency in ten regions, while hot and dry conditions impacted winter wheat-producing areas.

After enjoying two consecutive seasons with production levels exceeding 90 million tonnes, Russia’s wheat output is expected to drop to 80.7 million tonnes this season. Despite this decrease, Russia is still poised to remain the world’s leading wheat exporter. 

However, the expected contraction in Russian exports is part of a larger trend of tightening global wheat trade.

Notably, except for the United States and Argentina, other top wheat exporters—including the European Union, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine—also anticipate declining wheat sales for the new campaign, which begins this month. 

This broader context of reduced exports among major wheat-producing nations is set to lead to the first global contraction in wheat exports since the 2017/2018 season, despite a record global harvest of over 790 million tonnes, as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.

This contraction in global wheat trade underscores the vulnerability of agricultural markets to climatic variations and highlights the interconnected nature of global food security. 

As countries navigate these challenges, the focus will likely shift towards ensuring stable domestic supplies while balancing export commitments. 

The upcoming season will be critical for global wheat markets, with significant implications for food prices and availability worldwide.

In related news, Morocco has imported more than 200,000 tonnes of grain, mostly wheat, from Russia in the first half of the year, Morocco World News reported.

Morocco World News said a delegation from Morocco’s National Food Safety Office recently visited Russia to learn firsthand about the nation’s grain quality control measures. The visit included observing the grain loading process and quality control procedures.

In September 2023, Russia said it was ready to supply Morocco with wheat at “reasonable prices.” Morocco imported 80,900 tonnes of wheat in November and another 81,300 tonnes in December.

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