SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa’s maize production for the 2023/2024 season is projected to fall by 22%, according to the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) of the South African government.

The projected decrease in maize production is largely attributed to adverse weather conditions, particularly prolonged periods of drought during critical stages of crop development.

South Africa has been experiencing erratic rainfall patterns, which have negatively impacted planting and crop yields. Additionally, rising input costs, including fuel and fertilizers, have further strained farmers, contributing to lower-than-expected production volumes.

The CEC’s latest summer crop forecast, the eighth for the season, anticipates a total maize harvest of 12.8 million metric tons, a decline from the previous season’s 16.43 million tons.

This revision comes after a previous estimate issued on August 28 had forecasted the harvest to reach 13.06 million tons, further highlighting the sharp decrease in output expectations.

The upcoming harvest is expected to consist of 6.08 million tons of white maize, primarily for human consumption, and 6.72 million tons of yellow maize, used mainly in animal feed.

The reduction in white maize output poses a potential challenge for domestic food security, as white maize is a staple food for millions of South Africans. Meanwhile, the decrease in yellow maize production is expected to affect the animal feed industry, which could see an uptick in prices due to constrained supply.

South Africa is the largest maize producer in Africa and a key player in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region’s food supply chain.

According to recent projections, the decline in maize production could have ripple effects on regional maize exports, particularly to neighboring countries like Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Mozambique, which rely on South African maize imports to supplement their own domestic needs.

Recently, however, the July report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected a significant rebound in South African corn production in the marketing year (MY) 2024/25.

According to USDA, projections indicate a rise to 16.5 million metric tons (MMT), contingent on normal weather conditions and an expansion of the planted area.

Sign up to receive our email newsletters with the latest news updates and insights from Africa and the WorldHERE.