USA – The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently revised its soybean production forecast for the 2024-2025 season while still projecting record-high yields.
Released on September 12, 2024, the USDA’s report indicates a decrease in expected soybean production to 4.59 billion bushels, down from previous estimates but still representing a significant increase of approximately 10% from the previous year.
This adjustment comes as the USDA anticipates an average soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre, a slight increase from earlier projections.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack stated, “Despite the reduction in total production, we are still looking at historically high yields, which reflects favorable growing conditions across many states.”
The USDA’s updated forecasts were influenced by weather conditions and increased harvested acreage.
In terms of acreage, the USDA estimates that approximately 86.3 million acres will be harvested for soybeans in 2024, a notable increase from the previous year’s figures.
This expansion in harvested area is crucial as it contributes to the overall production levels despite the lowered forecast.
The report also highlighted that states such as Illinois and Indiana are expected to achieve record yields, with Illinois projected at 66 bushels per acre and Indiana at 62 bushels per acre.
The USDA’s adjustments are not limited to soybeans; they also include projections for corn production. The agency estimates U.S. corn production will reach about 15.14 billion bushels in 2024, a slight decline from last year’s record output of over 15.3 billion bushels.
The corn yield is projected at approximately 183.1 bushels per acre, slightly below previous expectations due to reduced harvested acreage.
Market reactions to these reports have been mixed. Shortly after the updated forecasts were announced, soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell by 20 cents per bushel.
Analysts suggest that while higher yields are promising for consumers and producers alike, the overall reduction in total production may temper market optimism.
Furthermore, the USDA has also adjusted upward global soybean production estimates, now projected at approximately 428.7 million tonnes for the upcoming season.
This increase is attributed to higher expected outputs in major producing countries such as Brazil and Argentina, alongside improved conditions in the U.S.
The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report also indicated an increase in U.S. soybean exports, projected at around 50.35 million tonnes for the upcoming crop year.
This reflects a growing demand for U.S. soybeans on international markets, particularly from China.
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