USA – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected an optimistic outlook for the 2024 wheat harvest, with total production expected to reach 1.971 billion bushels, an increase of 9% over 2023.
According to the USDA, the total planted area for the upcoming wheat season is expected to cover 46.079 million acres, while the harvested area is pegged at 38.469 million acres.
The average yield across the country is forecasted at 51.2 bushels per acre, a considerable improvement from the 48.7 bushels per acre recorded in 2023.
Winter wheat, which constitutes the bulk of the U.S. wheat crop, is projected to see production rise by 9%, reaching 1.349 billion bushels. This increase is fueled by an expected yield of 51.7 bushels per acre, up from last year’s 50.6 bushels per acre.
Spring wheat production is also set for a boost, with output projected at 542.32 million bushels, marking an 8% increase compared to the previous year. The average yield for spring wheat is expected to jump significantly, reaching 52.5 bushels per acre, up from 46 bushels in 2023.
This increase in both winter and spring wheat production is due to favorable growing conditions in key wheat-producing regions, a lower rate of crop abandonment, and higher yields per acre.
The USDA’s forecast includes detailed breakdowns for different varieties of wheat. Hard red winter wheat, which is grown extensively in the Great Plains, is expected to produce 770.439 million bushels. Soft red winter wheat, another important variety, is projected to yield 342.439 million bushels, while white winter wheat is expected to contribute 236.052 million bushels to the total output.
Hard red spring wheat is forecasted at 50.867 million bushels, with white spring wheat and durum wheat expected to add 39.453 million and 80.051 million bushels, respectively.
The USDA also highlighted the expected changes in wheat production across different states. Kansas, the nation’s leading winter wheat producer, is set to see a significant increase in output, with production expected to reach 307.45 million bushels, up from 201.25 million in 2023.
The state’s average yield is projected at 43 bushels per acre, a marked improvement from 35 bushels per acre last year. This increase reflects favorable growing conditions and a reduction in abandoned acreage.
In contrast, some states are expected to experience declines in wheat production. Arkansas is forecasted to produce just 4.76 million bushels of winter wheat, down from 9.405 million bushels in 2023.
This drop is due in part to a reduction in the planted and harvested area, as well as a slight decrease in average yield. Similarly, Illinois is expected to see its winter wheat production fall to 60.2 million bushels, down from 67.86 million in the previous year, with yields dropping slightly to 86 bushels per acre from 87 bushels per acre in 2023.
While some states are projected to see declines, other areas are expected to break production records. South Dakota, for instance, is forecasted to set a new record for winter wheat yield, with an average of 63 bushels per acre, up from 47 bushels per acre in 2023.
Missouri is also expected to see a record-setting yield, with an average of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 70 bushels per acre in 2023. These states benefit from improved weather conditions and advancements in farming practices that have boosted yields.
The USDA’s next supply and demand report, scheduled for release on October 11, will provide further insight into the prospects for the 2024 wheat crop.
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